Der Länderrisikoatlas von Allianz Trade bewertet die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten, Risiken und Chancen in 83 Ländern, die etwa 94 Prozent des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts ausmachen.
Insgesamt haben die Allianz-Trade-Volkwirte in ihrer Studie 36 Länder wegen sinkender Risiken heraufgestuft und nur 14 wegen steigender Risiken herabgestuft. Zu den 36 Volkswirtschaften mit verbesserten Ratings gehören Argentinien, Ecuador, Ungarn, Italien, Spanien, die Türkei und Vietnam.
„Sinkende globale Länderrisiken sind zunächst eine sehr gute Nachricht für die exportorientierte deutsche Wirtschaft“, sagt Milo Bogaerts, CEO von Allianz Trade in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz.
„Allerdings sind unter den 14 Ländern mit steigenden Risiken keine ‚kleinen Fische‘: Insbesondere Frankreich, Belgien und die USA gehören zu den wichtigsten Handelspartnern der Deutschen. Sie machen zusammen rund ein Fünftel der deutschen Exporte aus. Es bleibt komplex. Die Herabstufung dieser Länder von jeweils AA1 auf A1 bedeutet zwar weiterhin ein insgesamt niedriges Länderrisiko, sie deutet aber auf anhaltende und erhebliche mittelfristige Risiken für Unternehmen hin.“
Das Rating beinhaltet Analysen und Einblicke in das wirtschaftliche, politische und geschäftliche Umfeld sowie in Nachhaltigkeitsfaktoren, die die Trends beim Zahlungsausfallrisiko für Unternehmen auf makroökonomischer Ebene beeinflussen laut Luca Moneta, Expertin für Emerging Markets bei Allianz Trade. Das Rating kombiniert 17 kurzfristige und 18 mittelfristige Indikatoren und dient Entscheidungsträgern als pragmatischer Kompass in einer Welt voller Krisen. Das Ziel: Volatilität zu bewältigen, Cashflows zu schützen und Risikobewusstsein in einen Wettbewerbsvorteil zu verwandeln, so die Volkswirtin.
| Allianz Trade Country Risk Ratings | |||||||||||
| March 2026 Review | |||||||||||
| Country | Medium-Term Rating (Country Grade) | Short-Term Rating (Country Risk Level) | |||||||||
| Andorra | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Antarctica | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Australia | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Austria | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| BES Islands (Bonaire, St Eustatius, Saba) | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Bouvet Island | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| British Indian Ocean Territory | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Canada | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Denmark | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Finland | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Germany | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Heard and McDonald Islands | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Ireland | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Liechtenstein | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Luxembourg | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Monaco | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Netherlands | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| New Zealand | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Norway | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Singapore | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| South Georgia/Sandwich Islands | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Spain | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Sweden | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Switzerland | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Vatican City | AA | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| American Samoa | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Belgium | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Bermuda | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| British Virgin Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Cayman Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Christmas Island | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Cocos (Keeling) Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Costa Rica | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Croatia | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Cyprus | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Estonia | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Falkland Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Faroe Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| France | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| French Guiana | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| French Southern Territory | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Gibraltar | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Greenland | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Guadeloupe | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Guam | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Italy | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Japan | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Malta | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Martinique | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Mayotte | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| New Caledonia | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Norfolk Island | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Northern Mariana Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Pitcairn Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Portugal | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Reunion | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Slovakia | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Slovenia | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| South Korea | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| St Helena | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| St. Pierre Et Miquelon | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Svalbard & Jan Mayen | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Taiwan | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Tokelau | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Turks & Caicos | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| United Kingdom | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| United States | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| US Minor Outlying Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| US Virgin Islands | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Wallis & Futuna | A | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Iceland | A | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Latvia | A | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Lithuania | A | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| San Marino | A | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | A | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Anguilla | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Aruba | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Bulgaria | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Chile | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Czech Republic | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| French Polynesia | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Greece | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Hong Kong | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Macao | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Malaysia | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Montserrat | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Uruguay | BB | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Albania | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Botswana | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Mexico | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Panama | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Poland | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Qatar | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Samoa | BB | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Puerto Rico | BB | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Azerbaijan | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| China | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Dominican Republic | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Guatemala | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Guyana | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Hungary | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| India | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Indonesia | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Israel | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Morocco | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Oman | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Paraguay | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Peru | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Philippines | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Thailand | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Vietnam | B | 1 (Low) | |||||||||
| Bahamas | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Brazil | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Brunei | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Cape Verde Islands | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Colombia | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Côte d’Ivoire | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Jamaica | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Kuwait | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Niue | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| St. Lucia | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| St. Maarten | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Trinidad & Tobago | B | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Namibia | B | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Romania | B | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Serbia | B | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| South Africa | B | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Turkey | B | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Algeria | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Benin | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Bhutan | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Cambodia | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Djibouti | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Honduras | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Kazakhstan | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| North Macedonia | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Rwanda | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Seychelles | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Tanzania | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Uzbekistan | C | 2 (Medium) | |||||||||
| Antigua & Barbuda | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Argentina | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Armenia | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Barbados | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Belize | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Cameroon | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Cook Islands | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Curacao | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Dominica | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Ecuador | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| El Salvador | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Eswatini | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Georgia | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Grenada | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Jordan | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Kenya | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Lesotho | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Madagascar | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Maldives | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Mauritius | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Micronesia | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Montenegro | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Nicaragua | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Nigeria | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Palau | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Sao Tome & Principe | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| St. Kitts & Nevis | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| St. Vincent & The Grenadines | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Suriname | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Togo | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Tuvalu | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Uganda | C | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Bahrain | C | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Ghana | C | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Vanuatu | C | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Angola | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Bangladesh | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Burkina Faso | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Congo (Democratic Rep Of) | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Egypt | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Fiji | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Gabon | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Gambia | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Kiribati | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Kyrgyzstan | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Mauritania | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Mongolia | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Nepal | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Senegal | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Tajikistan | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Zambia | D | 3 (Sensitive) | |||||||||
| Afghanistan | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Belarus | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Bolivia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Burundi | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Central African Republic | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Chad | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Comoros | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Congo (People’s Rep Of) | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Cuba | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Equatorial Guinea | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Eritrea | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Ethiopia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Guinea (Rep Of) | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Guinea Bissau | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Haiti | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Iran | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Iraq | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Laos | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Lebanon | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Liberia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Libya | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Malawi | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Mali | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Marshall Islands | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Moldova | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Mozambique | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Myanmar (Burma) | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Nauru | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Niger | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| North Korea | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Pakistan | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Papua New Guinea | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Russia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Sierra Leone | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Solomon Islands | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Somalia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| South Sudan | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Sri Lanka | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Sudan | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Syria | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Timor Leste | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Tonga | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Tunisia | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Turkmenistan | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Ukraine | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Venezuela | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Yemen | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
| Zimbabwe | D | 4 (High) | |||||||||
Quelle: Allianz Trade 2026
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