Kurzfristig, wie angenommen, schaffte der Dax den Dreh nach oben. Knapp 6000 Punkte sind es zur Stunde. Die vergleichsweise guten Vorgaben aus den USA und aus Japan könnten den Anstieg noch etwas verstärken. Das Ziel von rund 6100 Punkten ist für die nächsten Tage realistisch. Aber dann?
Der Januar ist, geht es nach der Statistik, brandgefährlich. Nach einem stabilen Beginn, getrieben von frischer Liquidität und der Hoffnung auf ein gutes Börsenjahr, kommt es in der Regal spätestens ab Mitte des Monats zu vermehrten Verkäufen. Und landen die Kurse Ende Januar im Minus, lautet die alte Börsenregel: Wie der Januar, so das ganze Jahr.
Tiefe Verunsicherung unter Anlegern
Das Umfeld ist gemischt. Die wichtigsten Antriebskräfte sind erstens die Aussicht auf eine, wenn auch verhaltene Fortsetzung der weltweiten Konjunkturerholung und die damit verbundenen Gewinnanstiege der Unternehmen; zweitens das niedrige Zinsniveau und der Mangel an lukrativen Anlagemöglichkeiten; und drittens die vor allem unter deutschen Anlegern verbreitete und tief gehende Verunsicherung, die viele Anleger derzeit vom Aktienkauf zurückschrecken lässt – es gibt also noch genügend potenzielle Käufer.
Andererseits bestehen echten Risiken: die weltweite Staatsverschuldung, die den Spielraum für weitere Konjunkturpolitik begrenzt und die Frage nach dem Exit bisher unbeantwortet lässt; das kühle Konsumklima, das angesichts steigender Arbeitslosigkeit 2010 zu einer Dauerbelastung wird; die mittlerweile in vielen Fällen hohen Kurse, die zum Teil schon wieder das Niveau aus den Zeiten vor der Krise erreicht haben.
Aktienmärkte erstaunlich stabil
Egal ob in Dax, Dow, Euro Stoxx oder Nikkei – die meisten großen internationalen Aktien notieren über ihrer steigenden 200-Tagelinie. Im Dax sind es 28 von 30 Werte. Im Sinne der klassischen Kurvenanalyse sind die Märkte damit nicht nur stabil, sondern eindeutig im Aufwärtstrend. Die Mischung aus unsicheren Fundamentaldaten und stabilen Kursverläufen ist derzeit das größte Pro für die Börse. Danach besteht – im Anschluss an den aktuellen kurzfristigen Anstieg zum Jahreswechsel - das Risiko derzeit nicht in einer generellen Abwärtswende; vielmehr geht es um die Frage, wie tief die nächste, mittelfristige Konsolidierung ausfällt.
Spielraum dafür ist reichlich. Das ist ein Vorteil, weil selbst bei einem mittleren Rücksetzer die Aufwärtstrends nicht gefährdet sind; und es ist ein Nachteil, weil eben dieser Rücksetzer schon einige Punkte kosten kann. Im Dax etwa verläuft die 200-Tagelinie derzeit bei 5200. Sollte sich eine Korrektur bis Februar oder März hinziehen, dann dürfte diese Linie etwa bei 5400 verlaufen. Das wäre ein Korrekturpotenzial von rund zehn Prozent und würde durchaus in die fundamentale Großwetterlage passen.
Fazit: Wer langfristig über Fonds oder Aktien investiert ist, kann die großen Trends laufen lassen. Ein Rücksetzer auf 5700 bis 5800 im Januar ergäbe neue Einstiegsgelegenheiten. Optimal wäre von dort aus dann ein zweiter Angriff auf 6100. Sollten 5700 jedoch nicht halten, könnte die beschriebene mittelfristige Konsolidierung bis 5400 folgen. Spätestens hier müssen die Märkte aber wieder nach oben drehen. Wenn sie das – wider Erwarten – nicht schaffen sollten, wäre das allerdings ein Zeichen dafür, dass sich fundamental etwas zusammenbraut, das die Anleger bisher noch nicht auf der Rechnung haben.
Hinweis: Der nächste Dax-Radar erscheint feiertagsbedingt Anfang Januar
282 Kommentare zu “Gefährlicher Januar”
sehr gute Hinweise
Leider nut Charttechnik .. Grundsätzlich gute Beobachtungen – aber es wirdübersehen, daß dank “Über-Information/Über-Desinformation” die Grundideen der Charttechnik nicht mehr so funktionieren wie früher, was man an vielen Fehlanalysen der letzten Monate sehen kann. Fundamental sind viele deutsche Aktien allerdings nach Bereinigung um Luft und Beschönigungsmassnahmen bereits jetzt mittelfristig zu teuer.
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